An Uneasy Look Back at 2007 in Nepal
FEBRUARY 12, 2008
2007 was a year of electoral postponements, growing violence in the Terai, continuing economic deterioration, lawlessness, lack of accountability and new shades of terrorism.
There were moments of hope. April 1, 2007: Nepal entered a transitional democratic process with the implementation of a new interim constitution and the formation of a government comprised of the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists). At stake were the proposed Constituent Assembly elections. And although the elections were repeatedly delayed throughout the year, on December 23, a tenuous grip on governmental unity grew stronger with the alliance’s signing of a 23-point agreement.
Some analysts have claimed that this fragile cohesiveness was made supportable by ongoing pressure exerted from the international community. The value (or irritation, depending on the view) of foreign influence – by the UN, the EU, USA, India, UK, China, as well as foreign NGOs – no doubt figured into the equation. But it is more important to remember the hard work of the Nepalis themselves – a march toward peace conducted under the shadow of high personal risk. This included a wide variety of men and women:
1. Political bigwigs who grappled with the importance of reaching beyond party lines.
2. Courageous journalists, professors and other professionals.
3. Indomitable business people, big and small.
4. Human rights activists.
5. Ethnic and cultural groups who chose to signal their grievances through peaceful forums rather than armed posses.
6. Bright young leaders who inspired their peers to think inclusively, in sharp contrast to youth gangs whose strong-arm methods were thuggish in character and results.
7. The remarkable resilience of the majority of Nepalis – those Nepalis who advocated the need to maintain an environment of open dialogue.
All of the above natives helped to prevent Nepal from tumbling into hopelessness.
Recent events in Kenya, however, remind one of how quickly a country perceived as somewhat stable can nosedive into a lethal free-for-all. The Africanization of Nepal, an idea increasingly bandied about, really is something to keep in mind. As in Kenya, there is a striking disconnect between the haves and have-nots in Nepal – especially between the denizens of the Kathmandu Valley and the rural majority. The abductions, the intimidation and the hunting down of people of different ethnicities in the Terai, for instance, seem very far away from the five-star hotels of the capital. But something similar happened in Kenya and with disastrous consequences:
1. Vigilante road blocks paralyzed the flow of goods.
2. Economic improvement was scuttled by an atmosphere of constant interruption and intimidation. Who dared to invest in a country that couldn’t protect its investors’ projects?
3. Disputation over elections uncorked decades of frustration over land, political power, societal standing and economic inequalities.
4. Young people hacking to death communities from different ethnic origins grabbed headlines while quiet efforts to wage peace went largely unnoticed.
Kathmandu continues to be lulled by a false sense of security. Politicos continue to posture for the benefit of their personal powerbases, while the economic toll soars and the undercurrent of discontent bubbles to the surface. This in spite of what occurred in Nepal in 2007:
1. The procrastination and/or inability of the Seven Party Alliance and the Maoists to deliver the promised elections deepened the impatience and trust of common Nepalis.
2. Victims of the 10-year armed conflict were not rehabilitated.
3. The urgent problem of displaced people, perhaps as many as 200,000, was not resolved.
4. Violence grew in the Terai. At least 130 people were killed and between 200 and 300 were kidnapped in Terai in 2007. An estimated 20-plus insurgent groups popped up in the Terai. Some groups may have been nothing more than a half-dozen criminals posing as a political entity. But other groups were far larger and organized around legitimate political beliefs. (Genuine or not, these Madeshi insurgents have muddied the reality that, in fact, most Madehsis would prefer to achieve peaceful resolution with the central government on board.) Still, southern Nepalis are terrified to speak out, as well they should be. Law and order is virtually non-existent and many areas. The Home Minister is universally despised and Madeshi faith in a Kathmandu-inspired solution is increasingly tainted by the question “When?”
6. The Maoist youth wing, the “Young Communist League” (YCL) upped the ante on spreading terror throughout the country by creating their own questionable “law and order.” YCL extortion, kidnapping and intimidation – without fear of prosecution -- severely compromised the aspirations of many peace-loving Nepalis and undermined their belief that a democratic process could ever take place.
7. Improvement in Nepal’s infrastructure was negligible because of Nepal’s ongoing instability. The extremely poor road system continued to make the riding of a bus more like a vertiginous switchback version of Russian roulette. When natural disasters occurred, such as the devastating monsoon floods and landslides of July 2007, the responsiveness of the interim government proved to be dismal. Likewise, the bridge collapse of December in Surkhet, which resulted in the death of 19 people and an additional 90 injured, reminded the people of how shaky Nepal’s infrastructure really was, in spite of decades of huge donations from foreign countries.
8. The Federation of Nepali Journalists reported 652 cases of excesses against reporters and media houses: beatings, abductions, intimidations, forced shutdowns of newspapers and various publishers – mostly at the hands of either YCL cadres or Terai rebels.
9. The energy crisis became ever more important – especially in the urban areas. Blackouts and “load-shedding” hours were extended, creating further hardships to citizens who expected relief after the dismissal of the king in 2006.
10. Environmental concerns increased. Kathmandu air quality continued to drop. The sacred rivers have been reduced to sewage highways. A shortage of drinkable water increased. An estimated 350 new vehicles entered traffic daily – this in a city with no new additional roads and already choking on interminable traffic jams.
11. Exports declined. Unemployment was around 50%. Basic food and shelter remained Nepalis’ two major concerns. There was a decline in farm output –this in a country where agriculture employs over 80% of Nepal’s population. The only signs of economic health were confined to tourism (which significantly improved), real estate and foreign labor.
12. Sex-trafficking continued unabated. In general, the rights of women and children remained abysmal.
13. The quest for quality education remained out of the reach of most children in Nepal. Illiteracy was around 60% by some accounts. The lucky minority of students who could afford it, fled to foreign campuses, especially to American colleges: The US took 7,754 Nepali students last year, a big jump from the 6,000 students allowed in the year before. Those youths who were getting a foreign education admitted that they were unlikely to return to Nepal, thereby continuing the problem of “brain drain” in Nepal.
It all comes back to the elections.
The elections in Kenya were the trigger for the recent violence in a country praised for its peaceful inhabitants.
In Nepal, few people are putting money on when the elections will actually take place. Will the army be brought in? Will there be a civil-led army takeover? What will the Maoists do? What will the Madeshi do? How long will the public stand for postponement of the elections?
The next post will deal specifically with what has transpired in Nepal in the first six weeks of 2008.
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